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County County Championship Previews – Week 8 2024

Lots of close games this week. Last round before the mid-season break, next game is 23rd June. Showers around but nothing that should take out more than a session.

Will we see teams accept draws and bowl lesser players, keeping the good ones fresher for white ball? Or surprise players “rested” this week? Hope not.

Post match update: Wins for Hampshire (51%), Essex (57%), and Durham (56%). All other games drawn, including all Division 2 matches, in which four scores over 500 were registered. Showers slightly more impactful than expected, including Worcestershire’s first home game of the year which was limited to 103 overs.

Note that Div 2 bowling attacks are struggling, leading to lots of drawn games. 25% results in Div 2, vs 47% in Div 1.

Gloucestershire vs Derbyshire

Might stick my neck out and say “draw”, based on the bowling being, shall we say, weaker than the batting. Nice to see de Lange in the wickets.

Post game update: Called it right. 526 (Lamb 207) played 530 (Bracey 144, van Buuren 187). Not much from de Lange, though he got two top order wickets in the first innings.

Leicestershire vs Glamorgan

Leicestershire have drawn all six games. Another close game here. This has an even higher chance of being a draw: weak attacks, but the batting units are decent and could compete in the bottom half of Division One.

How has Kiran Carlson bowled 125 overs this year? Am assuming Glamorgan go with five bowlers + Carlson.

Ian Holland a useful (loan?) signing for the hosts.

Post match update: Draw. Leicestershire have drawn all seven, this week restricting Labuschagne (4,114 Test runs at 50) to a mere 39 runs across two innings. Glamorgan had pulled ahead when time ran out (200 lead, four down in the second innings). Just one over from Carlson as Glamorgan went with five bowlers.

Middlesex vs Sussex

Another (!) close game. This time lower scoring based on my ratings, yet both teams have heavy-scoring top orders this year. Can’t recall how heavily these teams scored with the Kookaburra ball, if I was paying attention I could adjust for that. Higgins averaging 89 with the bat and 30 with the ball, ludicrous.

Post match update: 554 plays 613. 21 batted, 19 made double figures. Am guessing it was a bit flat. Neither team had the spin option to do damage (though Carson’s 56-13-166-4 is rather impressive).

Northants vs Yorkshire

No Brook, no Root, no Coad. No better time to play against Yorkshire. Neither team has won a game yet. But on the fatigue tracker, Sanderson has 192 overs this year.

Post match update: Lyth (4-25) almost did enough to finish Northants off but at 250-8 they held on. Vasconcelos (129*) held the fourth innings together. Sanderson (match figures: 5-114) was his usual self but lacked support (others 11-512). Even with players missing, Yorkshire had hundreds from Lyth and Masood.

Durham vs Somerset

Hard to gauge Somerset. Overton may not be fully fit. Davey was off the field for a bit last week.

Durham’s batting looks really good, just need one of Raine or Potts to start getting wickets.

Post match update: 259 runs across two innings from Somerset. Stokes (8-77 in the match) made the difference, supported by Raine (6-67). Durham’s batting depth had an impact: 199-9 became 265 all out, meaning a 28 run slender lead was extended to be enough for an innings victory as Somerset crumbled to 88 all out. There are top order batters around the county circuit who are no better than Durham’s number ten (Raine).

Hampshire vs Surrey

Am assuming Neser plays this week, after Fuller was preferred against Essex (possibly because Neser had just arrived).

Surrey are their usual strong selves.

Post match update: Hampshire’s biggest ever win on the back of 600+ runs (hundreds for Albert, Gubbins and Brown). Surrey lack a quality spinner, so expect spinning pitches from every team hosting Surrey from now on. 12 wickets shared between Dawson and Organ. Obviously only two overseas allowed, this time Abbas made way. Organ’s removal of Sibley, Pope, Smith, Lawrence left Surrey 118-5 with no way back.

Kent vs Essex

I don’t rate Kent’s bowling, but they’ve got a good shot against Essex (whose batting is fallible).

Kent’s attack hasn’t had much luck with the ball this year.

Post match review: Got this wrong, Essex made 591 (Cox 207) and won by an innings. Harmer is getting into the summer.

Lancashire vs Warwickshire

Warwickshire are yet to win, and while they are fifth in the table, a loss could drop them into the relegation zone. Lancashire have a two thirds chance of winning.

Why no Anderson for Lancashire?

Just Jennings thriving with the bat so far for Lancashire this year.

Tough call to make whether Bailey plays (maybe Morley the extra spinner could start).

Worcestershire vs Nottinghamshire

LPW is back, I presume he doesn’t make the XI. Worcestershire will need to bring in a couple of people who’ve not played this year, tricky to know which way they go.

County Championship Previews – Week 7 2024

As someone who watches whatever looks exciting in the moment, this week will have plenty to get excited about (Stokes vs Lyon anyone?). Here’s the odds and squads:

Weather – Friday showers, Saturday early rain in the south. If it were me I’d bat first at Hove / Taunton / Chelmsford, to have a good chance of bowling on Saturday.

The three weakest teams in D1 are all away, so could be some thrashings this week.

Derbyshire vs Northants

Neither bowling attack has thrived this year. Northants have a lot of runs though. Derbyshire the better team.

Post game update- Derbyshire just about clung on, Northants made 732-13 with the bat, including runs from Broad who I wasn’t expecting to make the team. Also Zaib, Conners and White not playing so not my finest piece of team prediction. Sanderson 5-76 in the first innings, 1-40 in the second- it’s hard to lead the attack every innings especially as you approach 200 overs in the season halfway through May.

Glamorgan vs Middlesex

A coin toss. Glamorgan a very mixed team. Higgins carrying the bowling for Middlesex this year, in what should be a good pace attack.

Post game update- Middlesex won by two wickets. Can’t get much closer than that. 7-115 from Helm and 192 runs from Stoneman (both of whom had started the season leanly). Glamorgan got runs from two of their elite batters (Ingram and Labuschagne) but not enough from the others. Ul-Hassan picked ahead of Root.

Leicestershire vs Gloucestershire

With a comprehensive win Leicestershire (W0 L0 D5) could go top.

The whole Gloucestershire top order is outperforming this year – will it persist? Can they get 20 wickets?

New look bowling attack this week, sort of reliant on the ball turning.

Post game review- fine batting from Gloucestershire (706/6) but Leicestershire (now W0 L0 D6) held on. The outperformance from Gloucestershire continues, but 20 wickets eluded them. Gloucestershire’s new ball pair picked up just 6 wickets in 81 overs.

Sussex vs Yorkshire

A close game. Sussex getting contributions across the XI with bat and ball. Yorkshire will be missing the predictable run-a-ball hundreds from H. Cherrington Brook.

Leech getting his first outing this year?

Boy are Yorkshire reliant on Ben Coad’s bowling.

Post game update – Sussex won by 21 runs. So, indeed a close game. Root was kept quiet with 77 runs. Leech did indeed get his first game, removing Pujara twice as his wickets, conceding 44 runs.

Essex vs Warwickshire

Essex the hottest favourites this week. On top of Porter and Cook’s excellence, Snater sneaking under the radar with 19 wickets at 19. For Warwickshire, 152 overs from OHD is a hefty workload this year, others need to step up.

Post game update- a four wicket win for Essex, when they looked to be toast after day two (bookies had them 10/1). A fine fourth innings chase.

Hannon-Dalby only bowled 27 overs in the game, Warwickshire do seem to be managing his workload (though if he’d been fresher maybe Warwickshire would have had a better chance of defending 330). 5-81 in the match from C.B. Simmonds on first class debut (right arm fast, 20yr old, former Barbados under 15s… note to self- check out his 2nd XI stats from the last couple of years).

Lancashire vs Durham

Lancashire (0W 3L) are the only team to have lost more than once this year. 64 points off Surrey you’d say their season is now damage limitation. Doubt they’ve ever been this much in the soup by 16th May. Got to stop collapsing. Much pressure on their talented top three to fire. Bailey is having a poor season with the ball which isn’t helping.

Stokes playing for Durham. Deepens their batting a bit

Carse has 1-294 this year. Amazing for someone who’s got 14 ODIs behind him.

Post game review – Jennings (260 runs) the difference between the two teams as Lancashire won by 60. The two struggling pacers ahead of this game were rested (Bailey and Carse).

Notts vs Hants

Barker is back. Needed at Trent Bridge which is relatively high scoring and not the kind of ground where Abbas can do it alone in one spell. Notts (Hameed 247, Stone 90!!) got 500 hosting Lancashire last week.

Post match update – yes Trent Bridge has been high scoring lately, but this decade it’s below average for runs per wicket. Might rely on how far across the square the pitch is (you get some very short boundaries). Barker played, took 2-97 (Hameed twice), and made a vital 74 as Hampshire won by five wickets. Hampshire’s first innings 276 was the outlier in a low scoring game.

Somerset vs Kent

I assume Leach plays ahead of Bashir who hasn’t got great (or even average) county numbers.

It’s very Somerset to be a couple of batters light.

Meanwhile Crawley has the worst average of any top seven batsman this year (of the players I expect to be still in their teams this week).

Post game review – Somerset win by eight wickets. Yes, Leach ahead of Bashir. No Aldridge as Pretorius (6-162) was preferred. Key was Kent slipping to 102-5 in an otherwise high scoring game (in Somerset’s first innings just one batter scored fewer than 19 runs). Crawley’s 238 (267) means he now averages 38 this year.

Surrey vs Worcestershire

Ran out of time to tell you anything interesting…

Post match update – got interesting when Surrey were 40-4 batting first but after that it was all one way. Worcestershire could have lost by 400, were it not for some late hitting by Gibbon and Smith.

My expected XI had two misses: Chahal and Smith ahead of Brookes and Finch.

County Championship Previews: Week 6 2024

Week 6. Weighted towards Division One, with teams catching up to play their fifth game. Should be some closer matches than last week.

Division two bowling attacks look unconvincing, so could see some draws there in good weather. Division one games might see a mix of teams batting and fielding at the toss as the sun shines.

Played last week: Glamorgan, Sussex, Kent, Lancashire. Others will be fresher.

Glamorgan vs Sussex – a coin toss between two quite different sides.

Sussex have bowling as good as their batting, with a balanced attack that has two spin options. Glamorgan have some spinners but lack quality in the pace department. Both batting units are of roughly similar quality, and while Northeast and Ingram have 1,000 runs between them, Sussex have six bats with 200+ runs.

Northants vs Gloucestershire – Northants favourites due to slightly better batting.

Northants bowling is somewhat salvaged by LPW coming on loan. Still very reliant on Sanderson. Expect Gloucestershire to recover if they do lose early wickets as they bat deep and Norrthants don’t bowl deep.

Hampshire vs Durham

Expect Hampshire’s attack to be too much for Durham. But cause for concern for Hampshire fans with some real underperformance by Hampshire’s bowlers this year (so far). Still no Barker in the squad.

Kent vs Worcestershire – I hope Worcestershire win given what they are going through.

Nottinghamshire vs Lancashire – Notts look good, plus had a rest last week and are at home.

Horrible start to the year for Lancashire. Bell just about the only bright spot. Last week must have been rather chastening, following-on against Kent.

Surrey vs Warwickshire – It’s the bowling that sets Surrey apart.

Surrey at the Oval with Pope, got to be expecting a big score. Wonder if Surrey would consider moving Pope to four, or if England are having a say.

Both teams have the surprise spinner with a bag of wickets this year (Steel and Yates).

County Championship – Gameweek 5 Preview

Week 5. Lots of rest weeks. Some bad weather around (south on Friday, north on Saturday). Assume each game is 10 sessions, so yet more draws. Maybe Somerset and Middlesex have the best chance of seeing results.

Two big mismatches this week, with Yorkshire and Lancashire heavy favourites.

Five matches. Two mismatches. The roses will dominate.

Yorkshire against Glamorgan. I know Yorkshire failed to press home their advantage last week against Derbyshire, but they are quality and Glamorgan’s bowling is uninspired. Glamorgan’s best chance is to frustrate – Northeast, Cooke and Ingram to bat time. Equally expect Yorkshire to target Crane and Douthwaite for fast runs: Yorkshire need to start winning else a gap could open up in the table.

Middlesex vs Leicestershire

Does form exist? If it does, then Holden du Plooy and Higgins will continue to rampage. If not, I make Leicestershire favourites in this game. Wouldn’t have imagined myself saying that 10 years ago.

Derbyshire vs Sussex

Horrible bowling stats for Derbyshire this year. If Robinson and Pujara can join the party for Sussex, this should be Sussex’s game.

Lancashire vs Kent

Should be a win for Lancashire. Two things though – Bailey has just two wickets this year, and there’s rain around. Can Lancashire a) win the toss and field, and b) Get the game moving?

Leaning and Crawley could do with some runs.

Somerset vs Essex

I didn’t rate Essex’s batting at the start of the season, but it’s growing on me (plus early season runs have pushed their players’ ratings up). Not much from Somerset’s bowlers this year, yet. I’m probably over-rating Overton and Davey if they aren’t 100%.

PS. First time with this new format, will tidy up next week so pictures are clearer. Let me know what you think.

Round one: County Championship 2024 (and a preview of sorts of round two)

Some thoughts on the first week of games:

Test grounds saw 90% more overs per game than the non-Test ones. Drainage matters, especially with only 8 points for an abandoned game.

Consider the midlands – between Nottingham (which saw a result) and Edgbaston (270 mainly watchable overs) lies the non-Test ground at Derby, which was washed out.

🙄 Trent Bridge, The Oval and Edgbaston are in action for round two. The weather has been better across the UK, but if there’s any damp outfields out there it won’t be them.

For all the talk of the Kookaburra ball being OK when new and then going flat, openers didn’t get that much of a benefit (averaging 35 vs 43 for others). The SR of opening bowlers was over 60 in round one.

Conversely, opening bats did OK – averaging 37. Then numbers 3-7 had the best of it, averaging 47. The real outlier is numbers 9-11 averaging 20 (the sort of numbers openers might accept in the harshest April conditions).

The Kookaburra ball in the first two rounds is a clever move in principle – offsetting the favourable bowling conditions and fresh bowlers with a less helpful ball could produce some well-balanced cricket (if the pitches get a chance to wear). But – Light levels mean early season games are shorter than the summer ones. They are thus poor candidates for the Kookaburra. Maybe games three and four would have been better. Perhaps insisting on Kookaburra balls for Lions games and England training camps would be a more accurately directed policy?

Watch out for fatigue in the bowlers with miles in legs already (James, OHD, Hutton, Pennington, Seales). Don’t expect to see any four man attacks in these Kookaburra weeks- the closest to a four man attack is Notts, and they can’t keep giving this many overs to Hutton & Pennington.

Higgins double hundred put the Northeast treble in perspective.

Essex getting wins now can give them a fine platform for when Harmer starts getting his 13-fors later in the summer.

Round two

Anyway, looking ahead to round two we have the following games:

Win probabilities (ignoring draws) for the second round of games. Apologies for the terrible quality screenshot

– Essex’s attack far too strong for Kent’s batting.

– Surrey have a better team than Somerset, but I like both team’s batting so it could well be 14 points apiece.

– Hampshire vs Lancashire has a strong chance of a result: if this goes the wrong way for the hosts, they’d be well off the pace after an eight-point washout last week. And hot off the presses Hampshire will be sans-Barker. Not good.

Player of the Match in the tournament-that-shall-not-be-named

The Player of the Match award tends to go to the top scoring batter of the winning team. The Women’s tournament-that-shall-not-be-named* bucks this trend.

Here’s the MOTM awards in the men’s tournament this year so far. Rather predictable, other than Chris Jordan rolling back the years: 8/11 wins for batters.

Yet if we look at the women’s section the split of POTM awards is more bowlers than batters: 4/11 wins for batters-

Small sample size, so I dredged through the scorecards of last year too: 14/26 wins for batters-

In aggregate, in the women’s section, that’s 18 POTM for the batters, eight for the bowlers, and 11 for all-round performances.

Many awards going to players who have contributed with bat and ball. Why might that be the case? If the average score is around 130, then there will often be no clear leading contributor with the bat. And if everyone takes 2-30 then no bowler stands out either (eg. Georgia Adams’ POTM for 18 runs & 2-16).

Any gamblers out there should look at all rounders batting up the order. Melie Kerr at 8/1 for the 12th August 2023 game, for example.

_{*Probably not helping my SEO, but who cares.}

Fiery Fred and Fatigue

County bowlers may start to show signs of fatigue this third week of the season. I’ve previously heard the response that it wasn’t a problem for bowlers in the good old days.

And if that’s true, then fair enough – either 1) my hypothesis is wrong (that elite pace bowlers can’t play four-days-on-three-days-off without a decline in performance) or 2) the old days were easier, meaning players could trundle all season long with no drop in performance.*

So I had a look at Fred Trueman’s record. Before we get into the results, it’s worth reminding ourselves of how the County Championship used to work. To modern eyes it looks relentless. Most games started the day after the last one. That meant August 1962 had nine three-day county fixtures, the only respite being Sundays (mid-game) where there was no play.** That is phenomenal fixture congestion. Did it impact performance? Yes.

Fred Trueman bowled 802 overs in the 1962 County Championship. Was he aware he averaged 15% more when one game started the day after the previous one? Rising to 23% if you just look at the County games.

The outcome was confounded by Trueman playing four Tests over the summer, so I looked further back – to the summer before he became an international cricketer, 1951. There the gap really was stark – averaging 51% more if there was no gap between games.

In the 15 matches where Trueman was unrested, he went wicketless in five of them. That didn’t happen in any of the ten games where he was coming in off at least a one day break.

In next week’s county games look at the pace bowlers with the heaviest workloads already this season: they’ll collectively be off their best. That’s Durham, Kent, Gloucestershire and Middlesex.

PS. I think there are three things bookmakers miss when compiling county odds: Fatigue, Home Advantage, and the benefit from fielding first. So far, I’ve be unable to exploit this. At least there are 13 game weeks to go…

*There’s a third option – that players used to be tougher. And a fourth – that the warm-ups and drills make modern games more tiring than they need to be. I choose to discount these, but make your own mind up.

**I’m just about old enough to remember when some Tests had a break on a Sunday. Feels like another world.

On the use of unfamiliar bowlers

England just whitewashed Pakistan away from home. Two innings of spin played a major part.

First Test: debutant Will Jacks took six wickets, outperforming xW by 2.5*. Third Test: debutant Rehan Ahmed took five second innings wickets for 48, outperforming xW by 3.5 (ie. on average it was really a 1-point-five for).

Jacks’ performance was on a surface where at one point 882 runs had been scored for the loss of ten wickets. Jacks has only bowled 411 first class overs, and 46 of them were at Rawalpindi.

I have a theory: unfamiliar spinners get a boost, relative to bowlers whose variations have been publicly scrutinised in HD. The boost is measurable by the outperformance vs xW (ie getting more wickets than you’d expect given the quality of balls bowled). We can’t test this directly (I don’t have the data, plus it’s subjective to know who is “unfamiliar”). But we can test a proxy: performances on debut.

The first two columns of the below chart show how it used to be. Lots of promising bowlers get a chance, very few succeed. Most wickets are take by the best bowlers (Murali & Warne) at a low average. These days that trend has reversed.

What’s driving that? I’d suggest it’s the element of mystery – spinners come in many forms, and each has a subtly different style and (possibly) variations. In the 1990s a top bowler may have been able to surprise batsmen with old tricks. Little chance of that these days. Already we know Rehan Ahmed bowls with a high arm, his leg break doesn’t turn as much as the googly, both deliveries have a scrabled seam with lots of topspin. And that’s just from one game.

There are probably some secondary factors, such as better selection, more judicious use of a second spinner, and fewer stars around to bring down the average of non-debutants.

If unfamiliar spinners have an advantage, there is an incentive to give the old ball to any vaguely capable new Test batsman. Keep an eye out for it in future, especially with England.

Take from this that one swallow does not a summer make. Give a spinner a few games to see what he’s made of**. Then we’ll decide if you’ve found the next Swann.

*I think. Didn’t write it down and Cricviz take stats off the app sharpish these days.

** Note the deliberate use of “he” – these stats aren’t based on the women’s game; so it would be inaccurate for me to assume the same principles apply.

Appendices

Leg spinners get better as their careers go on (courtesy of @sanderson_club). Rule of thumb: takes 700 overs to reach their peak.

2. Rehan Ahmed xW – scraped from CricViz’s app.

3. ODI Spin Debutants – Note how wide the gap used to be between debutants and all spinners in ODIs. Just like in Tests.

4. The same trend does not apply for pace bowlers

England’s use of bowlers in the first innings at Rawalpindi (1/12/22)

England’s spinners just took 8-405 within a total of 657. Pace bowlers only sent down a third of the overs: 50 across three days. A guy with 21 first class wickets at 53 bowled as much as the opening bowlers combined. So what happened, any why?

Anderson got 3 overs with each new ball, then three or four overs with a 30 over old ball. Just 16 of the first 120 overs. No doubt one eye on the second innings, and one on the Test starting on the 9th. I presume he would have bowled more had he had more success (22-4-52-1). Seems that England used short bursts to explore if Anderson would have favourable conditions (with new or old ball). He didn’t.

Stokes similarly got 3 overs with a 40 over old ball, then with the second new ball had a go slightly earlier with a 24 over old ball. That wasn’t what I’d expected – but Stokes averages over 40 with the new ball, so credit to Stokes’ England for giving new(ish) ball duties to the spinners.

Robinson had eight overs with new balls, then only 13 overs at other stages in the innings. He bowled so little that I didn’t see much of it, and can’t really comment.

Expect Mark Wood to return to the side for the second Test, in place of Liam Livingstone (knee injury). I see two reasons why Robinson didn’t bowl more: either rest bacause he’ll play the second Test ahead of Jamie Overton, or he looked so ineffective his overs were given to the part time spinner.

Will Jacks wasn’t someone I thought we’d see bowling much. 21 wickets at 53 in First Class cricket, and just as significantly he has bowled fewer than nine overs per game.

He made a good start – exerting control over the top four (1-76 at 3.3 rpo).
Babar Azam counter attacked, scoring at 7.4rpo before Jacks got him caught at point – a win for Will Jacks
Then 4-37 against numbers seven to eleven. Admittedly only two wickets were against the top order, but a good return (6-161) from a sixth bowler.

Imam ul Haq received more than half his balls from Jack Leach, making 54 before being dismissed. Not clear that England got their matchup right there if that was pre-planned.

So I can sort of understand England’s approach, and they may yet win. But when the opposition make 579 and you’re conserving bowlers because there are 15 days of Test cricket in 21, then maybe the scheduling is having unintended consequences that devalue the sport.

Preview – England vs New Zealand June 2022

England 24%, New Zealand 46%, Draw 30% for Lord’s says my model. Here I’ll explore why I disagree with the bookmakers (who say 40%/25%/35%*), then give crusty crumbs of comfort to England supporters, and finally share what I think players would average if we played the series forever.

Advantage New Zealand

The visitors will have seven batters who have performed at Test level (Devon Conway came along just when needed, with 767 runs in his first seven Tests). Meanwhile England’s top three average in the twenties (Lees/Crawley/Pope). Yes, two of them are better than that, but you get the point.
New Zealand should have four front-line pace bowlers, well suited to early-summer in England. As a collective, their five possible quick bowlers have 105 wickets at 26 in blighty**. The hosts chose Jack Leach (which I see as a brave move at Lord’s). Pace tends to do well at Lord’s – 26 rpw vs 39 spin. I expect pace to dominate in early June.
Have an actual allrounder (Colin de Grandhomme). Contrast this with England who will probably gamble on Root to be fifth bowler. England may need to discount Stokes’ bowling (four wickets at 57 this summer, 11 at 43 in the last year of Tests). With Leach/Root as two of the five bowlers, England would have to field last if they won the toss, even if that’s not optimal. New Zealand can be more flexible.

Reasons to be cheerful (if you’re English)

New Zealand (World Test Champions, last two years W8 D2 L3) have an excellent record but may have peaked as a team. Ross Taylor and BJ Watling have retired. Trent Boult (32) is likely rested for the first Test, having only played four Tests since Jan 2021. Like all modern tourists, they’re undercooked. Being 70-8 last week against an attack featuring Ben Gibbon hints NZ aren’t in mid-season form. Don’t mention: England have W7 D7 L12 in the last two years.
James Anderson. Last three years averages 23. Yes he’s two months shy of his 40th birthday, but still has 12 wickets at 23 in the county championship this summer, which is strong in the context of the runfest we’ve seen. Don’t mention: Anderson’s strike rate is 69 this championship summer, and in the last 12 months averages 29 in Tests. If NZ can see him off, plenty of first innings overs against spin await.
Pope – averages 32 against pace, 22 against spin. Has a great chance to prove himself at number three. Similarly, Stokes (40/33) prefers pace. And Leach (37/6, tiny sample size) Don’t mention: Root (44/69), Bairstow (29/43) are the opposite. Or that Crawley averages 18 against Right-arm Medium in Tests.

Expect an even contest between bat and ball, with average scores just over 300.

And, in case my model is running in Garbage In Garbage Out mode, here’s the expected averages I fed it:

Summary of my expected averages for each team this series. No idea if I’ve got the NZ XI right, will re-run the models with the actual team at the toss.

Am all ears as to how England are favourites – find me @edmundbayliss on twitter, or comment here.

*I’m so far off-market here that this can’t be right. What could I be missing? Leach’s spin? Overrating Williamson? Is Potts the new Archer?

** Synonym for England / Great Britain. Note: must check how proper writers avoid saying “England” as every tenth word.