Preview – Red Ball Data

County County Championship Previews – Week 8 2024

Lots of close games this week. Last round before the mid-season break, next game is 23rd June. Showers around but nothing that should take out more than a session.

Will we see teams accept draws and bowl lesser players, keeping the good ones fresher for white ball? Or surprise players “rested” this week? Hope not.

Post match update: Wins for Hampshire (51%), Essex (57%), and Durham (56%). All other games drawn, including all Division 2 matches, in which four scores over 500 were registered. Showers slightly more impactful than expected, including Worcestershire’s first home game of the year which was limited to 103 overs.

Note that Div 2 bowling attacks are struggling, leading to lots of drawn games. 25% results in Div 2, vs 47% in Div 1.

Gloucestershire vs Derbyshire

Might stick my neck out and say “draw”, based on the bowling being, shall we say, weaker than the batting. Nice to see de Lange in the wickets.

Post game update: Called it right. 526 (Lamb 207) played 530 (Bracey 144, van Buuren 187). Not much from de Lange, though he got two top order wickets in the first innings.

Leicestershire vs Glamorgan

Leicestershire have drawn all six games. Another close game here. This has an even higher chance of being a draw: weak attacks, but the batting units are decent and could compete in the bottom half of Division One.

How has Kiran Carlson bowled 125 overs this year? Am assuming Glamorgan go with five bowlers + Carlson.

Ian Holland a useful (loan?) signing for the hosts.

Post match update: Draw. Leicestershire have drawn all seven, this week restricting Labuschagne (4,114 Test runs at 50) to a mere 39 runs across two innings. Glamorgan had pulled ahead when time ran out (200 lead, four down in the second innings). Just one over from Carlson as Glamorgan went with five bowlers.

Middlesex vs Sussex

Another (!) close game. This time lower scoring based on my ratings, yet both teams have heavy-scoring top orders this year. Can’t recall how heavily these teams scored with the Kookaburra ball, if I was paying attention I could adjust for that. Higgins averaging 89 with the bat and 30 with the ball, ludicrous.

Post match update: 554 plays 613. 21 batted, 19 made double figures. Am guessing it was a bit flat. Neither team had the spin option to do damage (though Carson’s 56-13-166-4 is rather impressive).

Northants vs Yorkshire

No Brook, no Root, no Coad. No better time to play against Yorkshire. Neither team has won a game yet. But on the fatigue tracker, Sanderson has 192 overs this year.

Post match update: Lyth (4-25) almost did enough to finish Northants off but at 250-8 they held on. Vasconcelos (129*) held the fourth innings together. Sanderson (match figures: 5-114) was his usual self but lacked support (others 11-512). Even with players missing, Yorkshire had hundreds from Lyth and Masood.

Durham vs Somerset

Hard to gauge Somerset. Overton may not be fully fit. Davey was off the field for a bit last week.

Durham’s batting looks really good, just need one of Raine or Potts to start getting wickets.

Post match update: 259 runs across two innings from Somerset. Stokes (8-77 in the match) made the difference, supported by Raine (6-67). Durham’s batting depth had an impact: 199-9 became 265 all out, meaning a 28 run slender lead was extended to be enough for an innings victory as Somerset crumbled to 88 all out. There are top order batters around the county circuit who are no better than Durham’s number ten (Raine).

Hampshire vs Surrey

Am assuming Neser plays this week, after Fuller was preferred against Essex (possibly because Neser had just arrived).

Surrey are their usual strong selves.

Post match update: Hampshire’s biggest ever win on the back of 600+ runs (hundreds for Albert, Gubbins and Brown). Surrey lack a quality spinner, so expect spinning pitches from every team hosting Surrey from now on. 12 wickets shared between Dawson and Organ. Obviously only two overseas allowed, this time Abbas made way. Organ’s removal of Sibley, Pope, Smith, Lawrence left Surrey 118-5 with no way back.

Kent vs Essex

I don’t rate Kent’s bowling, but they’ve got a good shot against Essex (whose batting is fallible).

Kent’s attack hasn’t had much luck with the ball this year.

Post match review: Got this wrong, Essex made 591 (Cox 207) and won by an innings. Harmer is getting into the summer.

Lancashire vs Warwickshire

Warwickshire are yet to win, and while they are fifth in the table, a loss could drop them into the relegation zone. Lancashire have a two thirds chance of winning.

Why no Anderson for Lancashire?

Just Jennings thriving with the bat so far for Lancashire this year.

Tough call to make whether Bailey plays (maybe Morley the extra spinner could start).

Worcestershire vs Nottinghamshire

LPW is back, I presume he doesn’t make the XI. Worcestershire will need to bring in a couple of people who’ve not played this year, tricky to know which way they go.

County Championship Previews – Week 7 2024

As someone who watches whatever looks exciting in the moment, this week will have plenty to get excited about (Stokes vs Lyon anyone?). Here’s the odds and squads:

Weather – Friday showers, Saturday early rain in the south. If it were me I’d bat first at Hove / Taunton / Chelmsford, to have a good chance of bowling on Saturday.

The three weakest teams in D1 are all away, so could be some thrashings this week.

Derbyshire vs Northants

Neither bowling attack has thrived this year. Northants have a lot of runs though. Derbyshire the better team.

Post game update- Derbyshire just about clung on, Northants made 732-13 with the bat, including runs from Broad who I wasn’t expecting to make the team. Also Zaib, Conners and White not playing so not my finest piece of team prediction. Sanderson 5-76 in the first innings, 1-40 in the second- it’s hard to lead the attack every innings especially as you approach 200 overs in the season halfway through May.

Glamorgan vs Middlesex

A coin toss. Glamorgan a very mixed team. Higgins carrying the bowling for Middlesex this year, in what should be a good pace attack.

Post game update- Middlesex won by two wickets. Can’t get much closer than that. 7-115 from Helm and 192 runs from Stoneman (both of whom had started the season leanly). Glamorgan got runs from two of their elite batters (Ingram and Labuschagne) but not enough from the others. Ul-Hassan picked ahead of Root.

Leicestershire vs Gloucestershire

With a comprehensive win Leicestershire (W0 L0 D5) could go top.

The whole Gloucestershire top order is outperforming this year – will it persist? Can they get 20 wickets?

New look bowling attack this week, sort of reliant on the ball turning.

Post game review- fine batting from Gloucestershire (706/6) but Leicestershire (now W0 L0 D6) held on. The outperformance from Gloucestershire continues, but 20 wickets eluded them. Gloucestershire’s new ball pair picked up just 6 wickets in 81 overs.

Sussex vs Yorkshire

A close game. Sussex getting contributions across the XI with bat and ball. Yorkshire will be missing the predictable run-a-ball hundreds from H. Cherrington Brook.

Leech getting his first outing this year?

Boy are Yorkshire reliant on Ben Coad’s bowling.

Post game update – Sussex won by 21 runs. So, indeed a close game. Root was kept quiet with 77 runs. Leech did indeed get his first game, removing Pujara twice as his wickets, conceding 44 runs.

Essex vs Warwickshire

Essex the hottest favourites this week. On top of Porter and Cook’s excellence, Snater sneaking under the radar with 19 wickets at 19. For Warwickshire, 152 overs from OHD is a hefty workload this year, others need to step up.

Post game update- a four wicket win for Essex, when they looked to be toast after day two (bookies had them 10/1). A fine fourth innings chase.

Hannon-Dalby only bowled 27 overs in the game, Warwickshire do seem to be managing his workload (though if he’d been fresher maybe Warwickshire would have had a better chance of defending 330). 5-81 in the match from C.B. Simmonds on first class debut (right arm fast, 20yr old, former Barbados under 15s… note to self- check out his 2nd XI stats from the last couple of years).

Lancashire vs Durham

Lancashire (0W 3L) are the only team to have lost more than once this year. 64 points off Surrey you’d say their season is now damage limitation. Doubt they’ve ever been this much in the soup by 16th May. Got to stop collapsing. Much pressure on their talented top three to fire. Bailey is having a poor season with the ball which isn’t helping.

Stokes playing for Durham. Deepens their batting a bit

Carse has 1-294 this year. Amazing for someone who’s got 14 ODIs behind him.

Post game review – Jennings (260 runs) the difference between the two teams as Lancashire won by 60. The two struggling pacers ahead of this game were rested (Bailey and Carse).

Notts vs Hants

Barker is back. Needed at Trent Bridge which is relatively high scoring and not the kind of ground where Abbas can do it alone in one spell. Notts (Hameed 247, Stone 90!!) got 500 hosting Lancashire last week.

Post match update – yes Trent Bridge has been high scoring lately, but this decade it’s below average for runs per wicket. Might rely on how far across the square the pitch is (you get some very short boundaries). Barker played, took 2-97 (Hameed twice), and made a vital 74 as Hampshire won by five wickets. Hampshire’s first innings 276 was the outlier in a low scoring game.

Somerset vs Kent

I assume Leach plays ahead of Bashir who hasn’t got great (or even average) county numbers.

It’s very Somerset to be a couple of batters light.

Meanwhile Crawley has the worst average of any top seven batsman this year (of the players I expect to be still in their teams this week).

Post game review – Somerset win by eight wickets. Yes, Leach ahead of Bashir. No Aldridge as Pretorius (6-162) was preferred. Key was Kent slipping to 102-5 in an otherwise high scoring game (in Somerset’s first innings just one batter scored fewer than 19 runs). Crawley’s 238 (267) means he now averages 38 this year.

Surrey vs Worcestershire

Ran out of time to tell you anything interesting…

Post match update – got interesting when Surrey were 40-4 batting first but after that it was all one way. Worcestershire could have lost by 400, were it not for some late hitting by Gibbon and Smith.

My expected XI had two misses: Chahal and Smith ahead of Brookes and Finch.

County Championship Previews: Week 6 2024

Week 6. Weighted towards Division One, with teams catching up to play their fifth game. Should be some closer matches than last week.

Division two bowling attacks look unconvincing, so could see some draws there in good weather. Division one games might see a mix of teams batting and fielding at the toss as the sun shines.

Played last week: Glamorgan, Sussex, Kent, Lancashire. Others will be fresher.

Glamorgan vs Sussex – a coin toss between two quite different sides.

Sussex have bowling as good as their batting, with a balanced attack that has two spin options. Glamorgan have some spinners but lack quality in the pace department. Both batting units are of roughly similar quality, and while Northeast and Ingram have 1,000 runs between them, Sussex have six bats with 200+ runs.

Northants vs Gloucestershire – Northants favourites due to slightly better batting.

Northants bowling is somewhat salvaged by LPW coming on loan. Still very reliant on Sanderson. Expect Gloucestershire to recover if they do lose early wickets as they bat deep and Norrthants don’t bowl deep.

Hampshire vs Durham

Expect Hampshire’s attack to be too much for Durham. But cause for concern for Hampshire fans with some real underperformance by Hampshire’s bowlers this year (so far). Still no Barker in the squad.

Kent vs Worcestershire – I hope Worcestershire win given what they are going through.

Nottinghamshire vs Lancashire – Notts look good, plus had a rest last week and are at home.

Horrible start to the year for Lancashire. Bell just about the only bright spot. Last week must have been rather chastening, following-on against Kent.

Surrey vs Warwickshire – It’s the bowling that sets Surrey apart.

Surrey at the Oval with Pope, got to be expecting a big score. Wonder if Surrey would consider moving Pope to four, or if England are having a say.

Both teams have the surprise spinner with a bag of wickets this year (Steel and Yates).

County Championship – Gameweek 5 Preview

Week 5. Lots of rest weeks. Some bad weather around (south on Friday, north on Saturday). Assume each game is 10 sessions, so yet more draws. Maybe Somerset and Middlesex have the best chance of seeing results.

Two big mismatches this week, with Yorkshire and Lancashire heavy favourites.

Five matches. Two mismatches. The roses will dominate.

Yorkshire against Glamorgan. I know Yorkshire failed to press home their advantage last week against Derbyshire, but they are quality and Glamorgan’s bowling is uninspired. Glamorgan’s best chance is to frustrate – Northeast, Cooke and Ingram to bat time. Equally expect Yorkshire to target Crane and Douthwaite for fast runs: Yorkshire need to start winning else a gap could open up in the table.

Middlesex vs Leicestershire

Does form exist? If it does, then Holden du Plooy and Higgins will continue to rampage. If not, I make Leicestershire favourites in this game. Wouldn’t have imagined myself saying that 10 years ago.

Derbyshire vs Sussex

Horrible bowling stats for Derbyshire this year. If Robinson and Pujara can join the party for Sussex, this should be Sussex’s game.

Lancashire vs Kent

Should be a win for Lancashire. Two things though – Bailey has just two wickets this year, and there’s rain around. Can Lancashire a) win the toss and field, and b) Get the game moving?

Leaning and Crawley could do with some runs.

Somerset vs Essex

I didn’t rate Essex’s batting at the start of the season, but it’s growing on me (plus early season runs have pushed their players’ ratings up). Not much from Somerset’s bowlers this year, yet. I’m probably over-rating Overton and Davey if they aren’t 100%.

PS. First time with this new format, will tidy up next week so pictures are clearer. Let me know what you think.

Preview – England vs New Zealand June 2022

England 24%, New Zealand 46%, Draw 30% for Lord’s says my model. Here I’ll explore why I disagree with the bookmakers (who say 40%/25%/35%*), then give crusty crumbs of comfort to England supporters, and finally share what I think players would average if we played the series forever.

Advantage New Zealand

The visitors will have seven batters who have performed at Test level (Devon Conway came along just when needed, with 767 runs in his first seven Tests). Meanwhile England’s top three average in the twenties (Lees/Crawley/Pope). Yes, two of them are better than that, but you get the point.
New Zealand should have four front-line pace bowlers, well suited to early-summer in England. As a collective, their five possible quick bowlers have 105 wickets at 26 in blighty**. The hosts chose Jack Leach (which I see as a brave move at Lord’s). Pace tends to do well at Lord’s – 26 rpw vs 39 spin. I expect pace to dominate in early June.
Have an actual allrounder (Colin de Grandhomme). Contrast this with England who will probably gamble on Root to be fifth bowler. England may need to discount Stokes’ bowling (four wickets at 57 this summer, 11 at 43 in the last year of Tests). With Leach/Root as two of the five bowlers, England would have to field last if they won the toss, even if that’s not optimal. New Zealand can be more flexible.

Reasons to be cheerful (if you’re English)

New Zealand (World Test Champions, last two years W8 D2 L3) have an excellent record but may have peaked as a team. Ross Taylor and BJ Watling have retired. Trent Boult (32) is likely rested for the first Test, having only played four Tests since Jan 2021. Like all modern tourists, they’re undercooked. Being 70-8 last week against an attack featuring Ben Gibbon hints NZ aren’t in mid-season form. Don’t mention: England have W7 D7 L12 in the last two years.
James Anderson. Last three years averages 23. Yes he’s two months shy of his 40th birthday, but still has 12 wickets at 23 in the county championship this summer, which is strong in the context of the runfest we’ve seen. Don’t mention: Anderson’s strike rate is 69 this championship summer, and in the last 12 months averages 29 in Tests. If NZ can see him off, plenty of first innings overs against spin await.
Pope – averages 32 against pace, 22 against spin. Has a great chance to prove himself at number three. Similarly, Stokes (40/33) prefers pace. And Leach (37/6, tiny sample size) Don’t mention: Root (44/69), Bairstow (29/43) are the opposite. Or that Crawley averages 18 against Right-arm Medium in Tests.

Expect an even contest between bat and ball, with average scores just over 300.

And, in case my model is running in Garbage In Garbage Out mode, here’s the expected averages I fed it:

Summary of my expected averages for each team this series. No idea if I’ve got the NZ XI right, will re-run the models with the actual team at the toss.

Am all ears as to how England are favourites – find me @edmundbayliss on twitter, or comment here.

*I’m so far off-market here that this can’t be right. What could I be missing? Leach’s spin? Overrating Williamson? Is Potts the new Archer?

** Synonym for England / Great Britain. Note: must check how proper writers avoid saying “England” as every tenth word.

County Championship previews: 2022

I’ve put together previews for each county. Since I’m better at statistics than writing, I’ll let the charts speak for themselves. The only thing to add is that I did these before the first round of games (honest!)

If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or find me on Twitter @edmundbayliss.

Now here’s Division 2:

Ashes 2021-22 Preview

Welcome. On average I think Australia are 79 runs per innings better than England, so a result like 3-0 is on the cards. Here I’ll rank the players and draw out some of the themes to expect.

Expected averages for each batsman this series. Starting lineups are estimated, though plausible changes don’t materially impact the analysis. Home advantage, bowling strength, matchups and hunches incorporated into the ratings.

It’s too easy to overanalyse. Let’s start simply. Two very good bowling attacks. Lots of OK batting. So without weather, expect results. In terms of the stronger batting, Warner/Smith/Labuschagne for Australia all average >70 at home in the last four years. As good as Root/Stokes are, England are outgunned. Australia are the better team, they are at home, and so they are favourites.

Probabilities My model says the odds should be 64% Aus, 22% Eng, 14% Draw (at Brisbane, excluding weather). If anything, I think that’s a bit generous to England. Oddly the bookmakers give England a 19% chance in Brisbane, when that game is likely to be rain affected. I wouldn’t be backing England…

Home Advantage Australia have a great home record. If you’re thinking 5-0, that’s not outrageous. They’ve whitewashed their opponents in five of the last thirteen series of three or more Tests. And Australia have won all eight day/night Tests they’ve hosted, so even the possibility of two D/N matches might not help England (who have lost three of their four pink ball games).

Spin is generally ineffective in Australia. Lyon is freakishly good there though: (avg Lyon 32, others 60). Another edge to the hosts. Note Lyon averages 40 vs RHB, 24 vs LHB in the last four years. England are heavy on RHB, which makes sense. If I were picking the squad, I’d focus on picking RHB that are best against pace, and rely on their right-handedness to blunt Lyon a bit. Look for Lyon to be into the attack early if Burns (LHB, avg 27 vs OS) is still there after 20 overs.

PS. Good to see England went for Pope over Bairstow. Bairstow averages 29 vs pace, 43 vs spin (Pope 36 / 25). I’d want the better batting against pace. A spin specialist won’t help you after you’re bowled out for 210 on the first day.

Ground characteristics. Gabba / Adelaide are Australia’s best recent grounds, with 80% home wins. Others are more like 60% home win. Might be something to do with spinners struggling:

Conditions are favourable to pace bowling in Australia. There’s more variety for spinners: Perth and Melbourne relatively helpful, while runs flow at the Gabba

England’s attack vs LHB – might be overrated on the strength of Broad’s reputation. Anderson averages 10 more against LHB recently, Leach averages 56 against LHB. Lots of pressure on Broad as the specialist LHB muncher. With Warner, Head, Harris and Carey batting backwards, it will be interesting to see England’s plans.

Rotation – 25 days’ play out of 42. Rule of thumb: add 7% to a pace bowler’s average in back-to-back Tests. There are two ways rotation can impact a team through a series: bringing in weaker bowlers, and failing to rest tired ones. I think the latter is the bigger risk in this series.

Adelaide is the obvious game for a rest (there are reasonable gaps between the other Tests, so a pacer could play four out of five). Australia have four excellent pace bowlers for three slots, so can merrily rotate (though Cummins being favourite for leading wicket taker indicates that he’s expected to play himself into the ground). Would England dare rest Broad or Anderson while the series is alive? Maybe. Wood and Woakes are adequate replacements.

If Stokes looks peaky, England may have to play Bess ahead of Leach to rebalance the side. Then they’ll really be in trouble.

The Toss. Teams tend to bat. Note the increased chance of draw if Aus bat first. Just as Leamon/Jones suggested in Hitting Against the Spin – it’s harder to force a win batting first.

PS. Hope the above wasn’t too disjointed – the series starts a day earlier than I’d thought. As a reward for making it to the end, here’s the details on some bets I’ve made:

Australia to win 3-0 (decimal odds 14.0)
England not to win the first Test (lay 4.6)
Starc Australia leading Series wicket taker (5.5)
Pope England leading Series run scorer (13)

Appendices

Averages vs Lyon, Hazlewood, Starc & Cummins. Buttler & Bairstow are a cause for concern: five out all out?

Bowler stats, last 4 years. Note how good Cummins is vs RHB. 99 wickets at 18 over the last four years is remarkable.

India vs England Preview February 2021

Test probability: India 62%, England 24% Draw 12%.

Series probability: India 72%, England 11%, Draw 17%. India are more likely to win 4-0 than England are to win the series.

Or at least that’s what my model thinks. Betting markets have England as low as 18% for the first Test. That’s reflecting low expectations of England’s batsmen against spin, and higher home advantage that my reckoning.

Hereafter are some notes that inform my thinking:

Country – Spin takes 60% of wickets in India. For England, that means Root will probably bowl a bit to support Leach and Bess. However, since 2011 overseas spinners average 43 in India, for the hosts that figure is 25. India seems a tough place to crack.

Grounds – Chennai has only had two Tests since 2011, Ahmedabad has been rebuilt since it last hosted a Test. So not as much to go on as usual. What I can tell you is that in the last seven FC games at Chennai only twice has a team gone past 350. If I’m awake, it’ll be interesting to see how the wicket plays (and how CricViz rate the batting conditions).

Batting Talent – India are 10% stronger than England. Add 15% home advantage that becomes 25%.

Bowling Talent – adds a further 9% advantage to India. There’s no area of the game where England are stronger than India in India. That doesn’t mean they can’t win, it would just be an upset.

Matchups –

India’s current lineup are really good against spin (Pujara averages 76, Kohli 71). England’s batsmen mostly have better stats against pace. Ashwin averages more batting against the twirlymen than Ben Stokes. Bairstow’s skills in this area will be missed (1,685 at 46). England may need someone to Make Things Happen with the old ball.
Ravi Jadeja is injured. Thus England’s right handers benefit from facing two off spinners (Ashwin and Sundar). Ashwin averages 31 against RHB (SR 60), 20 against LHB. So while England’s right handers might have a good series, expect to see Ashwin into the attack early when Stokes comes to the crease, and if Burns starts well.

Format – back-to-back Tests at Chennai, and back-to-back Tests at Ahmedabad. One silver lining for England is that Anderson and Stone can rotate in for Broad and Archer. Bumrah is harder to replace. England may benefit from the 7% increase in a bowler’s average playing back-to-back Tests.

Home advantage – 15% (lower than the usual 21%, might flatter England as they won in 2012 with peak Swann and Panesar, which distorts the stats). Maybe I’m being generous to England putting 15% into the model.

Sri Lanka vs England “Preview” January 2021

Here’s some brief notes written ahead of the first Test. I really should have put this up before the Test started. Anyway:

I give England only a 31% chance in the first Test. The betting markets say 39%. Why the difference? The toss is vital and England’s batting isn’t at full strength.

Batting first is key. SL are W7 L1 D1 batting first, W3 L4 D0 batting second recently. Batting first is worth 148 runs (runs per wicket by innings over the last 10 years: 40, 28, 29, 26). A 400 pitch becomes a 280 one after the successful tossers have had their fun with it.
- Note spin is no good in first innings (average 42, SR 77). If you field first and get nowhere in 20 overs, you are in very deep trouble.

England have a lot of right handers. A tasty matchup for a leg spinner or SLA bowler. There are two in the Sri Lanka squad: Lasith Embuldeniya averages five wickets per FC game, PWH de Silva is more an all rounder who averages two per game. Embuldeniya averages 40 after seven Tests, but with a FC average of 25 in Sri Lankan conditions, he has a great opportunity. Surprised to see Embuldeniya’s odds 25-1 for Man of the Match. Oh, and he’s Sri Lanka’s leading wicket taker over the last two years.

On the topic of Sri Lankan FC averages, there’s a gulf between Test Cricket and the Sri Lanka Premier League Tier A. It’s hard to estimate because there are few (if any) overseas players for calibration, but I make the increase in bowling average 70%: a 25 average in Tier A translates to a Test average of 43. Here’s the expected averages for Sri Lanka’s attack:

Expected averages for Sri Lanka’s attack. Lakmal will be missed in the first Test. Fernando looks useful.

Away teams pick too many spinners (over the last ten years away spinners average 35 at Galle) likely because teams pick more spinners than are Test standard. The relevant decision is “who will do better, our third spinner or our first change pace bowler”?
- In England’s case they that’s not a question of spinning ability, more the balance of the side. With Ali unavailable, England don’t have the batting depth to pick a third specialist spinner. Expect Curran+Bess+Leach+Two Pacers+Root. Sri Lanka will know this, so have an incentive to prepare a spinning pitch and nullify England’s pace attack. Unclear what the pitch will be like as has to be good enough to take back-to-back Tests.

Curran and Bess may not offer enough in either batting or bowling to balance the team. Maybe in a couple of years, but today England look beatable.

Put all that together, England have the better bowlers, but the toss is so important that it’s a great leveller. Win the toss, bat, win the game.

Changing conditions

I hadn’t noticed this change – it used to be that the 2^nd innings was the time to bat in Sri Lanka. Now it’s the 1^st innings. See below the difference in runs per wicket from batting first/third versus second/fourth. A big advantage to winning the toss and batting.

Why should that change happen? Different groundsmen? Different grass? Playing at a different time of year? Either way it shows the importance of “live” queries feeding models rather than fixed assumptions.

PS. Reflecting after the first day’s play I need to think about specific matchups. Bairstow and Root are good against spin, even when it turns away from them.
PPS. There’s a lot of Test series happening right now – will December/January become the annual window of international red ball cricket?
PPPS. The comments about the importance of the toss look silly when spin took 6-85 in the first innings. Was I wrong or were Sri Lanka’s batsmen wrong? Hard to gauge without xW data.

England vs Pakistan Preview – August 2020

An impressive batting unit supported by an exciting bowling attack versus an impressive batting unit supported by an exciting bowling attack.

What will decide the series? Here’s my usual pre-series ramble, with stats on the Pakistan squad at the bottom.

All rounders. England are running out fast. Debateable whether England will even have an all rounder for the first Test. Some names to mull: Ben Stokes (is he fit to bowl?), Joe Denly (dropped), Moeen Ali (dropped), Chris Woakes (struggling with the bat), Sam Curran (is he good enough at either discipline)? As for Pakistan, Shadab Khan averages 34 with the bat from five Tests, but only 27 in First Class – more a number seven than a six. Pakistan will be gambling either way: a five man attack lengthens the tail, an inexperienced four man attack has nowhere to hide.
Pitch preparation. England would be stronger if they could confidently not pick a spinner (Bess didn’t contribute a lot with the ball against West Indies). Pakistan are itching to play two spinners. Why would the Old Trafford groundsman produce a deck that turns? Worth noting in the two Manchester Tests this summer, spin averaged 52 while pace was around half that at 27.
Naseem Shah and Kashif Bhatti. Pakistan’s batting is solid, enough talent that they can cover if any one of them goes full Shai Hope. For all the excitement, I’m uncertain about their bowling. Mohammad Abbas is a banker (Test average 21, and the same average in two devastating seasons at Leicestershire). Shaheen Shah Afridi has 30 Test wickets, so has some track record. Yasir Shah has a proven record – it’s just a bit mediocre (averaging 34 in the last four years). One of Naseem Shah or Bhatti thus has to step up. The signs are good – both average 17 in domestic cricket in the last four years (Bhatti has 125 wickets, the younger N. Shah has only 26).
Rest. West Indies clearly don’t read this blog (or The Daily Telegraph), else they wouldn’t have knackered their bowlers playing three back-to-back Tests. A three Test BTB series is more like a tournament than a traditional Test series: you’ve got to manage bowler workload. The easiest way to do that is to pick the best team for the first game, then half the pace bowlers miss the second Test, and the others miss the third. Sohail Khan is good enough to rotate in – but are the other Pakistan squad bowlers Test standard? With England’s squad depth, their edge will get bigger as the series goes on.
England’s Ashes tunnel vision. Picking Crawley and Bess with an eye on December 2021 is silly. When the West Indies series got real, Crawley was dropped and Bess didn’t get a chance to bowl. Pakistan will be only too happy if England’s team sheet has a number three with a First Class average of 31, and an off spinner for Pakistan’s right handed middle order to milk. Bess isn’t a bad player, it’s just that England would have a better chance of winning playing an extra pacer.

England start as favourites. Burns, Sibley, Root, Stokes are a fine core of a batting order, and there’s healthy bowling options. If Stokes can bowl, a balanced England team playing on increasingly familiar territory should be too strong.

Tag: Preview