I was on the latest Cricket only Bettor podcast talking about promising Test cricketers. Here are my thoughts in more detail.
It can be difficult to judge Test players after a few innings. Their Test average is likely to be meaningless. First Class records feature innings played a decade ago. The concept of “First Class” is lovely, but not all FC bowling attacks are created equal. South Africa has two levels of FC cricket, England has a couple of rounds of games against students each year.
I’ve used player records over the last four years in the top First Class tournament of their country to pick out the best batsmen that are just embarking on their Test career. Note that expected averages below are from here onwards (rather than career averages which should be adjusted up/down based on performances to date).
5. Oshada Fernando. Expected Test average 37
FC avg just 37 over his career, but this rises to 50 over the last four years. Likely to be under-rated.
39 sixes in nine FC matches last season (Jos Buttler gets a six roughly every other FC innings). Also averaged 74 last year.
Test average of 46 comes from four away Tests (in SA and Pakistan).
Hit 75* as Sri Lanka beat South Africa 2-0 in South Africa. (Before that only England and Australia had won a series in South Africa).
In December Pakistan soundly beat Sri Lanka in Karachi. Sri Lanka subsided for 212, with only two batsmen passing 20. One of those two was Fernando – he made 102.
4. Rassie van der Dussen. Expected Test average 40.
Took the long route to Test cricket: T20I then ODI experience before being unleashed in whites aged 30.
Tasted success in the 2019 World Cup with three fifties in six innings, even as SA’s campaign faltered (finishing seventh in the group).
Reasons to believe: last four years scored 2,302 runs at an average of 55. Some positive murmurs in the media from his first three Test innings.
3. Zubayr Hamza. Expected Test average 42.
1,563 runs at 50 L4yr. Career FC avg 49.97. Just 24 yrs old, quite a prospect.
Makes the list purely on First Class performances. Top order batsman, Poor start to Test career, but has a higher first class average than van der Dussen. Averaging 21 after eight innings, but I’m keeping the faith
2. Marnus Labuschagne. Expected Test average 45
He’s just racked up the most runs scored by an Australian in a five-match summer. So why isn’t Labuschagne #1? His FC record lately isn’t that good – four year Sheffield Shield average of 35.
His evolution is interesting. Averaged 25 in the Sheffied Shield in 2018/19, and only 26 over his first five Tests to 31st March 2019.
Began 2019 as an unknown (to me) player in an unfancied Glamorgan team but scored 1,114 at 66 and followed that up with a great run for Australia.
Will he keep it up? He’s surely not come from nowhere to be the best since Bradman. Has he? It depends on how you judge a player. One year? Two years? Four years? Their whole career?
1. Ollie Pope. Expected average 48.
Didn’t get past 30 in his first five Test innings, has back to back fifties since then.
Missed most of 2019 with a shoulder injury, though that doesn’t seem to have affected his game.
Hit an unbeaten double hundred in August against a Hampshire attack with four international bowlers (Edwards, Abbott, Holland, Dawson).
Has only played 34 first class matches – so there’s some uncertainty on exactly how good he is.
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The list started as best batsmen to debut in 2019, but I could only find three batsmen that excited me enough. Thus Pope and Labuschagne got parachuted in and the list was extended to the last 18 months. Honourable mentions go to Mayank Agarwal and Rishabh Pant who would probably have made the cut if I’d been looking at the last 18 months from the start.
Red Ball Data 