Tag: County Championship

County County Championship Previews – Week 8 2024

Lots of close games this week. Last round before the mid-season break, next game is 23rd June. Showers around but nothing that should take out more than a session.

Will we see teams accept draws and bowl lesser players, keeping the good ones fresher for white ball? Or surprise players “rested” this week? Hope not.

Post match update: Wins for Hampshire (51%), Essex (57%), and Durham (56%). All other games drawn, including all Division 2 matches, in which four scores over 500 were registered. Showers slightly more impactful than expected, including Worcestershire’s first home game of the year which was limited to 103 overs.

Note that Div 2 bowling attacks are struggling, leading to lots of drawn games. 25% results in Div 2, vs 47% in Div 1.

Gloucestershire vs Derbyshire

Might stick my neck out and say “draw”, based on the bowling being, shall we say, weaker than the batting. Nice to see de Lange in the wickets.

Post game update: Called it right. 526 (Lamb 207) played 530 (Bracey 144, van Buuren 187). Not much from de Lange, though he got two top order wickets in the first innings.

Leicestershire vs Glamorgan

Leicestershire have drawn all six games. Another close game here. This has an even higher chance of being a draw: weak attacks, but the batting units are decent and could compete in the bottom half of Division One.

How has Kiran Carlson bowled 125 overs this year? Am assuming Glamorgan go with five bowlers + Carlson.

Ian Holland a useful (loan?) signing for the hosts.

Post match update: Draw. Leicestershire have drawn all seven, this week restricting Labuschagne (4,114 Test runs at 50) to a mere 39 runs across two innings. Glamorgan had pulled ahead when time ran out (200 lead, four down in the second innings). Just one over from Carlson as Glamorgan went with five bowlers.

Middlesex vs Sussex

Another (!) close game. This time lower scoring based on my ratings, yet both teams have heavy-scoring top orders this year. Can’t recall how heavily these teams scored with the Kookaburra ball, if I was paying attention I could adjust for that. Higgins averaging 89 with the bat and 30 with the ball, ludicrous.

Post match update: 554 plays 613. 21 batted, 19 made double figures. Am guessing it was a bit flat. Neither team had the spin option to do damage (though Carson’s 56-13-166-4 is rather impressive).

Northants vs Yorkshire

No Brook, no Root, no Coad. No better time to play against Yorkshire. Neither team has won a game yet. But on the fatigue tracker, Sanderson has 192 overs this year.

Post match update: Lyth (4-25) almost did enough to finish Northants off but at 250-8 they held on. Vasconcelos (129*) held the fourth innings together. Sanderson (match figures: 5-114) was his usual self but lacked support (others 11-512). Even with players missing, Yorkshire had hundreds from Lyth and Masood.

Durham vs Somerset

Hard to gauge Somerset. Overton may not be fully fit. Davey was off the field for a bit last week.

Durham’s batting looks really good, just need one of Raine or Potts to start getting wickets.

Post match update: 259 runs across two innings from Somerset. Stokes (8-77 in the match) made the difference, supported by Raine (6-67). Durham’s batting depth had an impact: 199-9 became 265 all out, meaning a 28 run slender lead was extended to be enough for an innings victory as Somerset crumbled to 88 all out. There are top order batters around the county circuit who are no better than Durham’s number ten (Raine).

Hampshire vs Surrey

Am assuming Neser plays this week, after Fuller was preferred against Essex (possibly because Neser had just arrived).

Surrey are their usual strong selves.

Post match update: Hampshire’s biggest ever win on the back of 600+ runs (hundreds for Albert, Gubbins and Brown). Surrey lack a quality spinner, so expect spinning pitches from every team hosting Surrey from now on. 12 wickets shared between Dawson and Organ. Obviously only two overseas allowed, this time Abbas made way. Organ’s removal of Sibley, Pope, Smith, Lawrence left Surrey 118-5 with no way back.

Kent vs Essex

I don’t rate Kent’s bowling, but they’ve got a good shot against Essex (whose batting is fallible).

Kent’s attack hasn’t had much luck with the ball this year.

Post match review: Got this wrong, Essex made 591 (Cox 207) and won by an innings. Harmer is getting into the summer.

Lancashire vs Warwickshire

Warwickshire are yet to win, and while they are fifth in the table, a loss could drop them into the relegation zone. Lancashire have a two thirds chance of winning.

Why no Anderson for Lancashire?

Just Jennings thriving with the bat so far for Lancashire this year.

Tough call to make whether Bailey plays (maybe Morley the extra spinner could start).

Worcestershire vs Nottinghamshire

LPW is back, I presume he doesn’t make the XI. Worcestershire will need to bring in a couple of people who’ve not played this year, tricky to know which way they go.

County Championship Previews – Week 7 2024

As someone who watches whatever looks exciting in the moment, this week will have plenty to get excited about (Stokes vs Lyon anyone?). Here’s the odds and squads:

Weather – Friday showers, Saturday early rain in the south. If it were me I’d bat first at Hove / Taunton / Chelmsford, to have a good chance of bowling on Saturday.

The three weakest teams in D1 are all away, so could be some thrashings this week.

Derbyshire vs Northants

Neither bowling attack has thrived this year. Northants have a lot of runs though. Derbyshire the better team.

Post game update- Derbyshire just about clung on, Northants made 732-13 with the bat, including runs from Broad who I wasn’t expecting to make the team. Also Zaib, Conners and White not playing so not my finest piece of team prediction. Sanderson 5-76 in the first innings, 1-40 in the second- it’s hard to lead the attack every innings especially as you approach 200 overs in the season halfway through May.

Glamorgan vs Middlesex

A coin toss. Glamorgan a very mixed team. Higgins carrying the bowling for Middlesex this year, in what should be a good pace attack.

Post game update- Middlesex won by two wickets. Can’t get much closer than that. 7-115 from Helm and 192 runs from Stoneman (both of whom had started the season leanly). Glamorgan got runs from two of their elite batters (Ingram and Labuschagne) but not enough from the others. Ul-Hassan picked ahead of Root.

Leicestershire vs Gloucestershire

With a comprehensive win Leicestershire (W0 L0 D5) could go top.

The whole Gloucestershire top order is outperforming this year – will it persist? Can they get 20 wickets?

New look bowling attack this week, sort of reliant on the ball turning.

Post game review- fine batting from Gloucestershire (706/6) but Leicestershire (now W0 L0 D6) held on. The outperformance from Gloucestershire continues, but 20 wickets eluded them. Gloucestershire’s new ball pair picked up just 6 wickets in 81 overs.

Sussex vs Yorkshire

A close game. Sussex getting contributions across the XI with bat and ball. Yorkshire will be missing the predictable run-a-ball hundreds from H. Cherrington Brook.

Leech getting his first outing this year?

Boy are Yorkshire reliant on Ben Coad’s bowling.

Post game update – Sussex won by 21 runs. So, indeed a close game. Root was kept quiet with 77 runs. Leech did indeed get his first game, removing Pujara twice as his wickets, conceding 44 runs.

Essex vs Warwickshire

Essex the hottest favourites this week. On top of Porter and Cook’s excellence, Snater sneaking under the radar with 19 wickets at 19. For Warwickshire, 152 overs from OHD is a hefty workload this year, others need to step up.

Post game update- a four wicket win for Essex, when they looked to be toast after day two (bookies had them 10/1). A fine fourth innings chase.

Hannon-Dalby only bowled 27 overs in the game, Warwickshire do seem to be managing his workload (though if he’d been fresher maybe Warwickshire would have had a better chance of defending 330). 5-81 in the match from C.B. Simmonds on first class debut (right arm fast, 20yr old, former Barbados under 15s… note to self- check out his 2nd XI stats from the last couple of years).

Lancashire vs Durham

Lancashire (0W 3L) are the only team to have lost more than once this year. 64 points off Surrey you’d say their season is now damage limitation. Doubt they’ve ever been this much in the soup by 16th May. Got to stop collapsing. Much pressure on their talented top three to fire. Bailey is having a poor season with the ball which isn’t helping. 

Stokes playing for Durham. Deepens their batting a bit

Carse has 1-294 this year. Amazing for someone who’s got 14 ODIs behind him.

Post game review – Jennings (260 runs) the difference between the two teams as Lancashire won by 60. The two struggling pacers ahead of this game were rested (Bailey and Carse).

Notts vs Hants

Barker is back. Needed at Trent Bridge which is relatively high scoring and not the kind of ground where Abbas can do it alone in one spell. Notts (Hameed 247, Stone 90!!) got 500 hosting Lancashire last week. 

Post match update – yes Trent Bridge has been high scoring lately, but this decade it’s below average for runs per wicket. Might rely on how far across the square the pitch is (you get some very short boundaries). Barker played, took 2-97 (Hameed twice), and made a vital 74 as Hampshire won by five wickets. Hampshire’s first innings 276 was the outlier in a low scoring game.

Somerset vs Kent

I assume Leach plays ahead of Bashir who hasn’t got great (or even average) county numbers.

It’s very Somerset to be a couple of batters light.

Meanwhile Crawley has the worst average of any top seven batsman this year (of the players I expect to be still in their teams this week).

Post game review – Somerset win by eight wickets. Yes, Leach ahead of Bashir. No Aldridge as Pretorius (6-162) was preferred. Key was Kent slipping to 102-5 in an otherwise high scoring game (in Somerset’s first innings just one batter scored fewer than 19 runs). Crawley’s 238 (267) means he now averages 38 this year.

Surrey vs Worcestershire

Ran out of time to tell you anything interesting…

Post match update – got interesting when Surrey were 40-4 batting first but after that it was all one way. Worcestershire could have lost by 400, were it not for some late hitting by Gibbon and Smith.

My expected XI had two misses: Chahal and Smith ahead of Brookes and Finch.

County Championship Previews: Week 6 2024

Week 6. Weighted towards Division One, with teams catching up to play their fifth game. Should be some closer matches than last week.

Division two bowling attacks look unconvincing, so could see some draws there in good weather. Division one games might see a mix of teams batting and fielding at the toss as the sun shines.

Played last week: Glamorgan, Sussex, Kent, Lancashire. Others will be fresher.

Glamorgan vs Sussex – a coin toss between two quite different sides.

Sussex have bowling as good as their batting, with a balanced attack that has two spin options. Glamorgan have some spinners but lack quality in the pace department. Both batting units are of roughly similar quality, and while Northeast and Ingram have 1,000 runs between them, Sussex have six bats with 200+ runs.

Northants vs Gloucestershire – Northants favourites due to slightly better batting.

Northants bowling is somewhat salvaged by LPW coming on loan. Still very reliant on Sanderson. Expect Gloucestershire to recover if they do lose early wickets as they bat deep and Norrthants don’t bowl deep.

Hampshire vs Durham

Expect Hampshire’s attack to be too much for Durham. But cause for concern for Hampshire fans with some real underperformance by Hampshire’s bowlers this year (so far). Still no Barker in the squad.

Kent vs Worcestershire – I hope Worcestershire win given what they are going through.

Nottinghamshire vs Lancashire – Notts look good, plus had a rest last week and are at home.

Horrible start to the year for Lancashire. Bell just about the only bright spot. Last week must have been rather chastening, following-on against Kent.

Surrey vs Warwickshire – It’s the bowling that sets Surrey apart.

Surrey at the Oval with Pope, got to be expecting a big score. Wonder if Surrey would consider moving Pope to four, or if England are having a say.

Both teams have the surprise spinner with a bag of wickets this year (Steel and Yates).

Round one: County Championship 2024 (and a preview of sorts of round two)

Some thoughts on the first week of games:

Test grounds saw 90% more overs per game than the non-Test ones. Drainage matters, especially with only 8 points for an abandoned game.

Consider the midlands – between Nottingham (which saw a result) and Edgbaston (270 mainly watchable overs) lies the non-Test ground at Derby, which was washed out.

🙄 Trent Bridge, The Oval and Edgbaston are in action for round two. The weather has been better across the UK, but if there’s any damp outfields out there it won’t be them.

For all the talk of the Kookaburra ball being OK when new and then going flat, openers didn’t get that much of a benefit (averaging 35 vs 43 for others). The SR of opening bowlers was over 60 in round one.

Conversely, opening bats did OK – averaging 37. Then numbers 3-7 had the best of it, averaging 47. The real outlier is numbers 9-11 averaging 20 (the sort of numbers openers might accept in the harshest April conditions).

The Kookaburra ball in the first two rounds is a clever move in principle – offsetting the favourable bowling conditions and fresh bowlers with a less helpful ball could produce some well-balanced cricket (if the pitches get a chance to wear). But – Light levels mean early season games are shorter than the summer ones. They are thus poor candidates for the Kookaburra. Maybe games three and four would have been better. Perhaps insisting on Kookaburra balls for Lions games and England training camps would be a more accurately directed policy?

Watch out for fatigue in the bowlers with miles in legs already (James, OHD, Hutton, Pennington, Seales). Don’t expect to see any four man attacks in these Kookaburra weeks- the closest to a four man attack is Notts, and they can’t keep giving this many overs to Hutton & Pennington.

Higgins double hundred put the Northeast treble in perspective. 

Essex getting wins now can give them a fine platform for when Harmer starts getting his 13-fors later in the summer.

Round two

Anyway, looking ahead to round two we have the following games:

Win probabilities (ignoring draws) for the second round of games. Apologies for the terrible quality screenshot

– Essex’s attack far too strong for Kent’s batting.

– Surrey have a better team than Somerset, but I like both team’s batting so it could well be 14 points apiece.

– Hampshire vs Lancashire has a strong chance of a result: if this goes the wrong way for the hosts, they’d be well off the pace after an eight-point washout last week. And hot off the presses Hampshire will be sans-Barker. Not good.

Fiery Fred and Fatigue

County bowlers may start to show signs of fatigue this third week of the season. I’ve previously heard the response that it wasn’t a problem for bowlers in the good old days.

And if that’s true, then fair enough – either 1) my hypothesis is wrong (that elite pace bowlers can’t play four-days-on-three-days-off without a decline in performance) or 2) the old days were easier, meaning players could trundle all season long with no drop in performance.*

So I had a look at Fred Trueman’s record. Before we get into the results, it’s worth reminding ourselves of how the County Championship used to work. To modern eyes it looks relentless. Most games started the day after the last one. That meant August 1962 had nine three-day county fixtures, the only respite being Sundays (mid-game) where there was no play.** That is phenomenal fixture congestion. Did it impact performance? Yes.

F.S. Trueman (right arm fast)

Fred Trueman bowled 802 overs in the 1962 County Championship. Was he aware he averaged 15% more when one game started the day after the previous one? Rising to 23% if you just look at the County games.

The outcome was confounded by Trueman playing four Tests over the summer, so I looked further back – to the summer before he became an international cricketer, 1951. There the gap really was stark – averaging 51% more if there was no gap between games.

In the 15 matches where Trueman was unrested, he went wicketless in five of them. That didn’t happen in any of the ten games where he was coming in off at least a one day break.

In next week’s county games look at the pace bowlers with the heaviest workloads already this season: they’ll collectively be off their best. That’s Durham, Kent, Gloucestershire and Middlesex.

PS. I think there are three things bookmakers miss when compiling county odds: Fatigue, Home Advantage, and the benefit from fielding first. So far, I’ve be unable to exploit this. At least there are 13 game weeks to go…

*There’s a third option – that players used to be tougher. And a fourth – that the warm-ups and drills make modern games more tiring than they need to be. I choose to discount these, but make your own mind up.

**I’m just about old enough to remember when some Tests had a break on a Sunday. Feels like another world.

F.S. Trueman 1951

Fatigue & the County Championship

Pace bowlers need rest. The County Championship structure begins with a rhythm of four days on, three days off. I think that’s too much and impacts performance.

Last week Ryan Higgins bowled 25 wicketless overs. So did Darren Stevens, going at over four an over. There’s more: Chris Rushworth, Jackson Bird, Ajeet Dale, Michael Hogan, Jamie Atkins. All had played three games in 18 days. In the third game their collective figures were 0-506.

Zoom out. I’ve looked at the pace bowlers who have played all three games this spring, and how they compare to the fresher bowlers that haven’t played all three:

Flipping heck. A 38% difference in average. This is much bigger than when I’ve looked at this before. But then those were just back-to-back Tests (7%), or for short recovery between List A games (5%). This is the harsher concept of back-to-back-to-back. It is, admittedly, just one week I’m looking at – adding the error bars we’re comparing averages of 25 (+/- 5) with 34 (+/- 7). I’d be surprised if the real variance is more like a (still whopping) 15-20%. 38% just feels too high*.

Let’s get into the implications of this:

Selection – if the above table is right, then Ryan Higgins (expected average 24) becomes a 33 averaging lump playing his third game on the trot. This means rotation is required. Puts the sides relying on one or two strike bowlers at a disadvantage (like Glamorgan, Derbyshire, Gloucestershire). Here’s the pace bowlers with the heaviest workloads so far – keep an eye on them next week***:

D1 – most overs from pace bowlers. Note the three Essex bowlers: Cook, Steketee and Snater. They can’t rest all three – so had better hope for some spinning pitches. Also the Hampshire trio of Abbas / Abbott / Barker**.

Season Structure – if four-days-on-three-days-off doesn’t work, what about four-days-on-four-days-off? Could start the first game on a Wednesday, the next the following Thursday etc, ensuring games still include weekends.

I’m a traditionalist, but if 14 games per season is damaging the competition, then maybe 12 (in the same window) is better. Standards must remain high. I’ll track and we’ll know more by the end of the year.

Scheduling – Looking ahead, there are four teams that play all the first six games. Then two (Durham & Leicestershire) are involved in all the seven April/May matches. Quite a disadvantage.

County Stats – is the failure of many recent batsmen to make the step from county to Test because batsmen are having things too easy against fatigued bowlers? Maybe it sounds far fetched, but worse suggestions have been provided.

Next steps – The hypothesis is that the knackered bowlers will underperform next week. We’ll see what an extra week’s data says. If I’m right, Essex and Hampshire may struggle.

* Yes, there were lots of top quality fresh bowlers deployed for the third round of games, but this only explains 3% of the gap.

** Lovely weather we’re having. It might be that there’s normally rain and cloud around, giving bowlers more helpful conditions and more rest. Thus (as The Leading Edge Cricket Podcast point out), the Top 6 batter average stands at 40 this year, up from last year’s 31.

***Not all games are equally tiring. Winning by an innings in two days, you get two rest days. A rain affected game is probably as good as a week off. When Hampshire scored 652/6 Abbott and Abbas had their feet up. I still need to think about who has had the best chances to recover.

County Championship previews: 2022

I’ve put together previews for each county. Since I’m better at statistics than writing, I’ll let the charts speak for themselves. The only thing to add is that I did these before the first round of games (honest!)

If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or find me on Twitter @edmundbayliss.

Now here’s Division 2:

County Championship 2021 preview (II) – teams

With six days to go until the County Championship begins, here’s my view of how each county will fare, based on player by player ratings. Analysis of conditions is in part I which is here.

Expected Standings

  • Expect Division 1 to comprise Essex, Warwickshire, Surrey, Hampshire, Lancashire and Yorkshire.
  • Note that Group 2 is the toughest: Somerset or Middlesex would probably qualify if they were in Group 3.
  • Warwickshire’s depth means I rank them second in Group 1 – even though Durham and Nottinghamshire have a better first XI.
  • Other than last place in each group, and Essex winning Group 1, the tournament is pretty open.

Group 1

Essex: Obviously the best team in Group 1. May be beatable in the spring, before Harmer is effective. Khushi may be able to displace Walter or ten Doeschate. Good pace bowling reserves

Warwickshire have the best chance of joining Essex in Division 1, with a tasty pace attack and the Brookeses, Lamb & Miles waiting in the wings. The batting may rely on Sibley, Rhodes and Malan. Hopefully Mousley (age 19) gets a good run in the side.

Nottinghamshire have a strong starting XI, with three all-rounders providing balance. They’re better than the 2019 and 2020 tables say. I like the number of above-average players who’ll be playing 2nd XI. Impressive team that Peter Trego might not get into the best XI.

Durham: I like their top five. They also bat deep. My analysis says their batting’s as good as Essex’s(?) At 25-1 I like those odds. Hopefully Borthwick can bounce back on his return from Surrey. Weak in the spin department, but Durham in April doesn’t really call for it. Expect they’ll finish fourth but they are underrated.

Worcestershire are asking a lot of Mitchell’s batting. RHB vulnerable to LS/SLA. Good enough bowling; a bit more in reserve/spin options would be nice. 2nd bottom in Division Two in 2019 (last full season); not expecting too much from Worcestershire this year

Derbyshire are a young team. Did well last year. Historic data may not do them justice as the core of the team reach their peak. Abbott and Reece mean just three specialist bowlers needed. Lots of unknowns: Just need a couple of them to come good.

Group 2

Surrey: should win Group 2. Huge & talented squad; availability better than last year. Just the Currans & Roy missing from the Group stage. Burns and Pope should find the lack of spin to their liking after a challenging winter. Can Surrey keep the momentum up in Division 1 without Burns, Pope, Foakes, Roach?

Hampshire: Division 1 beckons. Batting depth covers slight shortage of quality (with apologies to Vince and Northeast). Openers have previously exposed the middle order too often. Good signings Abbas/Abbott. Opponents will be hoping one of those two is resting when they face Hampshire.

Somerset‘s bowling ensures results, but batting not at the same level. Lammonby’s three 2nd inns Bob Willis Trophy hundreds tell us he can bat. Only one batsman aged between 24 and 33; Hildreth & Davies may find age catching up with them. de Lange a brave choice of Overseas: I’m not certain he makes their strongest red ball XI.

Middlesex are by no means a bad team, but much to do to reach Division 1 from a tough group. No big weaknesses for April/May conditions. An opportunity for Walallawita (22) to become the side’s premier spinner (or for Middlesex to be bold and play without a spinner in conditions that don’t necessarily need one). Harris ensures a short tail (if selected!)

Gloucestershire – Higgins, Brathwaite and Dent are class. The rest of the relatively young top order will have to find a way to make runs. Gloucestershire are normally competitive, but a top two finish is likely beyond these bowlers. Would be good to see Howell play this year.

Leicestershire are a bowler light. Second best openers in the group. Best chance is if Azad/Harris can wear down the opponent’s pace attack. Look out for Rishi Patel, don’t let the First Class average of 17 fool you. Average age 25: this is a squad that could grow together.

Group 3

Lancashire: Best batting in the group. Two very good bowlers will miss out when Anderson plays. Will be interesting to see how Lancashire balance their XI around Parkinson: will they go with five specialist bowlers if they want to include a spinner?

Yorkshire are good enough for Division 1. Bess and captain Patterson are by no means guaranteed a place. Jordan Thompson is worth looking out for. Heck of a lot of youth players in the squad.

Kent have a nice attack. Podmore will be a handful early in the season. Stevens has still got it, even though he’ll be bowling to a keeper half his age. The Crawley-Denly axis may decide whether Kent can pip Lancs/Yorks for a D1 spot. Can Crawley improve FC avg of 32? Denly’s LS mean Kent can go with four pace bowlers. Should they be worried about the size of their squad?

Northamptonshire can trouble any batting order, I think they are under-rated. Ben Sanderson the star player. Wayne Parnell and Tom Taylor add batting depth. An overseas all-rounder was definitely the right choice.

Sussex: I’ll disagree with the bookies here – I think Sussex will struggle. Wiese, Archer and Jordan are hard to replace. Overseas players and Ben Brown will hold the batting together. Lots of young reserves – which I may have under-rated (see the Notes section)

Glamorgan: Labuschagne could win them some games in May. But will it be too late by then? Neser, Hogan, van der Gugten will concern openers, but lower-middle-order batting will get an opportunity as they tire. Will need to see more from the batting of Selman, Lloyd, Root, Carlson.

Notes

  • Bat rating = expected batting average
  • Bowl rating = expected bowling average
  • The lack of 2nd XI games and abridged Bob Willis Trophy mean 2020 has less weighting than most years. This is likely to adversely impact the rating of young players where their data is mostly from when they were less experienced. Don’t get angry if the numbers under-rate your favourite 23-year-old.

County Championship 2021 preview (I) – conditions

This preview is in two parts. Below is analysis of the expected themes from the season. Part two will use this insight, plus my ratings of every player, to predict how each team will fare.

Format: the group stage sees three groups of six; each team playing ten games. The top two qualify for Division One, next two Division Two, and the bottom two go into Division Three. These divisions play a further four games. The winner of Division One is the County Champion. The top two teams in Division One compete for the Bob Willis Trophy.

Group stage timing – Spin: Eight of the ten group stage games are in April and May. That means spinners will be relatively unimportant: they bowl only 19% of the overs while averaging 46% more than pace bowlers. Expect teams to pick one spinner (to get through the required 96 overs per day, and they can still be effective in the fourth innings). It will be the quality of pace attack that matters.

Fig 1 – County Championship data from April and May 2019

Group stage timing – Run scoring: Batting isn’t significantly tougher in April. Expect maybe the first two weeks of April where we’ll see some carnage. That’s the best time to cause an upset against the favourites in your group. Fortunately for Worcestershire, they play Essex twice in April.

Scheduling – Selection: Weekly fixtures, starting on a Thursday, should limit the need for rotation. Three rest days between games should suffice. With 13 players shaking their money-makers at the IPL, and England players likely unavailable for the last three Group stage games, it’s good that teams won’t be further weakened by rotation.

Scheduling – Overseas: The IPL means a much reduced overseas player pool. With two overseas players allowed per team (post Kolpak), this is an area where teams can differentiate. Would you rather have Kyle Abbott and Mohammed Abbas (Hampshire) or Marchant de Lange and TBC (Somerset)? Odd that there haven’t been more Pakistani players recruited (they don’t participate in the IPL); maybe budgets are tight and post-COVID many counties don’t have the funds to lure the players they want.

Divisions timing: There’s a gap after the Group stage. The four matches that make up the second stage of the competition start on 30th August. While September’s overhead conditions feel like they benefit pace bowlers, the Test data says otherwise. August and September are as good as it gets for spinners in England.

We might find an all-pace attack sails into Division One, but then struggles on wickets that demand two spinners.

Fig 2 – Test averages by month, 2010-2020. See https://redballdata.blog/2020/08/16/test-bowling-averages-by-month-in-england/

July & youth players: Hopefully the opportunity to win Division Two or Three appeals to counties that start the season slowly. And it’s not just the games in September where teams may refocus onto development. What about a team that after May realises they won’t be winning the County Championship, and so rather than risk their best players for the two July fixtures, rests them to keep their focus on T20? I hope I’m just being pessimistic, but those July Championship games are going to look decidedly inconvenient to the teams hunting a Blast quarter final spot.

Impact on England: In April and May 2019 just under half of the overs were delivered by Medium or Medium-Fast bowlers. Which makes sense: Harry Podmore hooping it is a handful. But more than half the games being played at a time that suits the medium pacer is not great preparation for Test Cricket. To predict which players will thrive at Test level needs data beyond raw averages. Dom Sibley’s County Championship average of 70 against spin might not be as strong as it appears (who did he face, and in which months?) I’ll have to start a County Championship ball by ball database.

Eight points for a draw – Rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic: With low value for draws, the County Championship was decided by wins. It was hard to finish above a team that won more than you. Now there’s eight points for a draw, you can pick up 16 points in a dull draw, while a win is worth at most 24 points.

There’s an incentive for inferior teams to bat time, and force the better team to attack to move the game along. I prefer teams to be chasing wins. If the new system had been in place in 2018 and 2019, 32 of 38 placings would be unchanged. Just three pairs of mid-table teams would swap places.

Best case scenario this change makes no difference. I think it’s a change for the worse.

Fig 3 – Points if eight points for a draw, and points under the rules at the time. Yellow teams are those which would change positions under the new rules.

Weather: The Met Office’s long range forecast for the first half of April looks cautiously optimistic.

At the start of this period, unsettled and changeable conditions are likely to continue across northwestern areas. However, high pressure may spread northwards through early April, which will bring a period of settled conditions for most. Following this, drier than average and brighter conditions may prevail, with areas away from the far northwest of the country receiving below average rainfall. Temperatures will mostly be around average or above, with any cooler periods likely to be short-lived, and mostly across northern areas.

Bob Willis Trophy preview: part one

Strange times. This year’s County Championship makes the best of a bad situation by fitting in a five-match group stage across August and September. Here’s what I think will happen, based on the Playing Conditions; disrupted squads; and the weather. Part two of this post will look at which players and teams I expect to do well.

Playing conditions

  • A reduction from a minimum of 96 overs to a minimum of 90 overs in a day’s play.
  • Each county’s first innings of a match can last no longer than 120 overs
  • The follow-on will increase from 150 to 200 runs
  • The new ball will be available after 90 overs rather than 80 overs
  • Eight points for a draw
  • Three regional groups of six. Two group winners with the most points contest the final.

Impacts

Perversely, more draws. Fewer overs per day removes up to 24 overs from a match. Capping an innings at 120 overs limits a team’s ability to go big batting once. Add to that the increased points on offer for a draw, and canny captains (once behind in the match) may change focus to points accumulation. While there is need to win the group and outscore one of the other group winners, a defeat makes qualification very unlikely – so conservative cricket may dominate the first two rounds. The last thing you want to do is give your rivals a 20 point head start.

Mismatches – all 18 counties together for the first time since 1999 gives an opportunity for the stronger players in the second division to prove themselves. However, there is the potential for some mismatches. Gary Ballance against some of the weaker attacks in the North group, for example.

Lopsided groups. The South group is toughest, and thus we are obliged to tag it the “group of death”. Sussex and Middlesex are the second division teams in that group, but are better than that. It will be difficult to win the South group, and the winner may not even qualify for the final if their victories don’t yield sufficient points.

Nothing to play for. After two defeats, a team is almost certainly out of contention. With no relegation, I hope teams do the decent thing and give 100 percent. This will be difficult. “Come on lads, let’s do it for the fans streaming this whilst working from home!” Hopefully something resembling the best possible team is selected, though it would be totally understandable if this weren’t the case: players may have other priorities in a pandemic.

Spinners to the fore. A new ball after 90 overs favours spinners (who will have the ball in their hands more) and lower middle order batsmen (who get easier conditions for longer). Win the toss and bat, surely.

Timing and weather

August / early September matches should slightly favour the bowlers. Last year’s first innings scores were 20 runs lower in August/September than the rest of the season. The Test matches have offered turn, indicating what pitches might do given the dry summer we’ve had.

The long range forecast from the Met Office is understandably vague, though hints at more weather disruption in the north than the south.

Confidence is low, but the second week of August is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather will most likely be in the north and west, though it may spread further south and east from time to time. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south or southeast. Looking further ahead into late-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled, particularly in the southeast.

Availability

These aren’t the county sides you’re used to. No overseas players. No England Test players. Won’t see much of the England white ball crew either. That means ignore the 2019 league positions and look at who will actually be playing. Are Hampshire a credible force without Vince, Dawson, Edwards and Abbott?

This is a great opportunity for the 200-250th best cricketers in England & Wales to get a run of five games. Let’s see how many of them can translate second XI success to First Class.

I’d normally end with a proper conclusion- but without analysing the squads that would be a mistake. Will save that for next time- once the teams announce their squads, I can pull in the ratings from my database to see who is best on paper.

For now- my hunch is that the Central group is the best one to be in. Can’t wait to run the numbers on Gloucestershire, Northamptonshire and Somerset and see who is best placed.